The baseline climate was represented by the long-term (1980–2009) dataset and CO 2 of 360 μmol/mol. The simulation was evaluated for three wheat cultivars (“early”, “medium”, and “late”) relative to their corresponding baseline values under the selected IMPs. Then, the model was used to (i) conduct sensitivity analysis of wheat in response to assumed elevated temperature (T), with and without change in rainfall and CO 2 level, and to (ii) evaluate average effect of future worst-case climate change scenarios as predicted by an ensemble of three global climate models (GCM) under highest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) for three future time frames, NF (2010–2039), MC (2040–2069), and EC (2070–2099). The model was first calibrated and used to identify ranges of IMPs. The objectives were to (i) evaluate the performance of wheat under increased temperatures with or without changes in rainfall and carbon dioxide (CO 2) levels and (ii) assess the response of different wheat cultivars to projected future climates under improved management practices (optimal nitrogen rate, planting date, and density) (IMPs). The potential impacts of climate change on wheat were assessed for Kulmsa area in central highlands of Ethiopia using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model.
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